Objectives

Weather is difficult to predict even with the help of the latest in forecasting technology, but an accurate weather outlook is crucial for air traffic management. Timely information about the likelihood of weather-induced delays from a trustworthy source enables a traffic flow manager to keep delay to a minimum using tactical measures.

FMP-Met set out to integrate meteorological forecast uncertainty into the flow management position (FMP), an operational position that monitors the level of traffic in airspace sectors and coordinates flow measures when an excess of demand over capacity is detected. Weather events such as unexpected or prolonged storms make sector demand hard to predict, increasing complexity that in turn leads to reduced capacity. The research focused on the development of an intuitive and interpretable probabilistic assessment of the impact of convective weather on operations based on the combination of the probabilistic sector demand, complexity, and capacity reduction.

Project partners analyzed the challenge facing the flow manager and researched different probabilistic weather forecast products, with different lead times and coverage areas, and concluded the provision of probabilistic traffic and capacity reduction forecasts under convective weather for a forecasting horizon of eight hours leads to better-informed decision making.

The main outcome of the project was the development of a probabilistic methodology to forecast traffic congestion and traffic complexity to be used in conjunction with the tools currently employed by FMPs.

The next steps in this research should lead to the development of a prototype tool, in close collaboration with FMPs, implementing the FMP-Met concept. This supports the FMP in taking anticipated, appropriate, and timely tactical flow measures.

Download the FMP-Met leaflet that outlines the main results of the project.

Benefits

• Timely tactical flow measures
• Preliminary evaluation of measures
• Enhanced efficiency