More frequent extreme weather events, such as intense thunderstorms, have led to an increase in weather-related flight cancellations, and this trend is set to continue as a  result of climate change. Rapidly developing thunderstorms are challenging to predict but affect flight safety and trigger flight re-routing, delays, or cancellations. The consequences of these events can include inconvenience for passengers, fuselage damage, delays, cargo damage, increase in pollution, and economic losses for airlines. 

SESAR research shows that more reliable arrival manager performance is possible by integrating highly accurate predictions of adverse weather into air traffic control decision-support tools. The SINOPTICA project exploits the untapped potential of assimilating remote sensing  (derived from earth observation and ground-based radar), as well GNSS-derived datasets and in-situ weather stations data into very high-resolution, very short-range numerical weather forecasts to provide improved prediction of extreme weather events. The project developed a short-term forecasting system of severe thunderstorms affecting airports and, together with the air traffic managers, deployed new strategies to adjust flight trajectories and avoid adverse weather areas. 

The research included four case studies with locally extreme weather, along with the development and modeling of possible flights solutions. The results showed that continuously updating the database with variables from GNSS-derived and in-situ weather stations succeeded in monitoring atmospheric variables at high spatial resolution and high accuracy in extreme weather, nowcasting with up to 30 minutes lead time.

Benefits

• Improved short-term extreme weather forecasting
• Optimised approach trajectories
• Improved knowledge of extreme weather measurement